When John Kerry arrives in China, the fundamental question will be whether the world’s biggest superpowers – and polluters – can put aside diplomatic differences and focus on critical climate goals.
Mr. Kerry, the United States’ special envoy for climate change, is the latest high official to be dispatched from Washington, following trips by Antony Blinken and Janet Yellen, as the US strives to re-establish frozen relations with Beijing.
During his four-day visit, he will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, and other officials. According to Mr. Kerry’s office, he wants to work with China on “increasing implementation and ambition” and guaranteeing the success of COP28, the United Nations climate change conference slated for the end of the year.
While their meeting is unlikely to result in any specific decisions, it will serve as a springboard for further discussion. They will almost certainly discuss their similar difficulties of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy and lowering carbon emissions.
According to one estimate, the two countries are the largest investors in renewable energy, with China alone accounting for more than half of global renewable energy investment.
They are, however, the world’s two largest carbon polluters, dubbed the “G2 of energy consumption, energy use, and pollution,” according to Dan Kammen, an energy expert at the University of California, Berkeley.
“So both are taking significant steps, but neither is actually seeing emissions fall,” he said on BBC Newshour.
Moves that contradict each other
Both administrations appear to be straining to combine the demands of economic growth with emission reductions, resulting in inconsistent policies that have sparked criticism from environmentalists.
Not long ago, China appeared to be interested in reducing its dependency on coal.
After a continuous ramp-up in clean energy infrastructure in recent years, President Xi Jinping declared key carbon neutrality goals in 2020. Years of rising smog in Beijing and other cities sparked considerable public concern, pushing authorities to gradually close coal-fired power facilities and reduce coal production.
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However, blackouts have plagued the country since then, owing primarily to the coal power slowdown or severe droughts hurting hydropower generation. As China’s manufacturers ramp up production, there is a growing need for power in the rebounding post-Covid economy, both locally and worldwide. Extreme heatwaves, such as the one saw this summer, and cold snaps have also resulted in increased electricity demand.
China has changed its focus to energy security. That means returning to coal power, which is considered as more reliable than wind and solar energy, which are intermittent.
According to one analysis, China allowed a huge boost in coal power output last year, the equivalent of sanctioning two major coal power plants per week.
Another study discovered that, while renewable energy now accounts for a larger share of China’s power output, coal-fired electricity was still increasing in absolute terms due to increased demand.
Activists have slammed the return to coal as a lazy answer to the problem, noting that there are market regulations and infrastructural measures that can improve the consistency of sustainable energy supplies.
As for the US, it has recently passed two pieces of legislation that would put billions of dollars into clean energy. But it has also just approved one of its largest oil and gas drilling projects in recent years in Alaska. US carbon emissions also grew in 2022 as the country consumed more natural gas during extreme weather that year, according to the International Energy Agency. “The US is no better… so each one has a long way to go, each one needs to egg the other on, and most importantly all the countries all around are watching to what degree the US and China absolutely are dead serious about the climate goals,” said Prof Kammen.
Laying out their priorities
According to analysts, Mr Kerry may try to encourage China to fully utilise its clean energy potential and achieve carbon neutrality sooner.
China plans to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which critics argue are overly ambitious and offer it too much latitude. Others have argued that China is still classified as a “developing country” by the UN, which implies it is held to a different standard than the US and other big powers.
Ms. Yellen pushed Beijing earlier this month to contribute to international climate funds established by wealthy countries to assist poorer economies affected by climate change. China has previously rejected such petitions, citing its UN standing.
China’s own wish list might include the repeal of a recently restored US tax on Chinese-made solar panels. It may also object to proposed US taxes on imported steel and aluminium based on carbon emissions, which would have a significant impact on Chinese exports.
Climate issues could also be used as a bargaining tool in larger trade and political talks.
Given the current condition of their relationship, China would be hesitant to be seen as caving in to the US, warned Li Shuo, Greenpeace East Asia’s senior global policy advisor based in Beijing.
However, Mr Kerry and Mr Xie have an opportunity to “capitalise on this relatively calm period… to separate their bilateral relationship from their climate conversation,” he told the BBC.
In conclusion, scientists suggest both countries must put aside their competition in order to address the climate catastrophe. There is optimism for a return to the goodwill that was seen at the 2021 COP meeting, when they announced a surprise joint agreement to expedite carbon reductions.
“You could still make a case for decoupling your trade if you are willing to bear the cost.” But you can never make the case for decoupling climate engagement because… neither the US nor China can tackle this problem alone. “This is a truly global issue that requires all hands on deck,” Mr Li said.